Sunday, June 13, 2010

History Gives Us Some Hints On World Cup


From the Evansville Courier Press, June 11, 2010


The World Cup is here, and as you have been told through continuous advertising through ESPN and the media, this is the world’s largest sporting event.

Whether or not you’re a soccer fan, there is plenty to get excited about. Imagine the patriotism and pageantry of the Olympics, mixed with the March Madness tournament-style feel of the NCAA basketball tournament. And it all starts today.

Soccer fans and casual sports fans alike have been participating in office pools, filling out brackets to see who will be left standing with the Jules Rimet Trophy on July 11 in Johannesburg, South Africa. Here are some tips to consider:

* European sides tend to struggle when playing away from their continent. Brazil is the only nation to win a World Cup outside its own continent — in Sweden in 1958, in the United States in 1994 and in Korea/Japan in 2002. Couple that with the fact that European nations traditionally do not fare as well away from home. The last time France played in a World Cup outside of Europe (in Korea/Japan in 2002), it didn’t even advance out of the group stages — and didn’t score a goal.

That team was a lot more talented than this year’s version, so don’t be surprised to see France exit early. The French sneaked into the World Cup on a controversial goal by Thierry Henry in qualifying and have an aging nucleus. They are grouped with host South Africa, Mexico and Uruguay. Portugal and Germany could be other intriguing picks as traditional powers to exit early.

* There has never been a tournament where the host nation hasn’t advanced out of the first round. That will certainly be tested in this tournament, as South Africa ranks last of the 32 teams.

Even though South Africa is in the same group with France, Mexico and Uruguay, I think they have a lot in their favor to lend them to an upset or two.

The African nations have produced a number of top players in world soccer today — Didier Drogba of the Ivory Coast is one of the great strikers in the world; Michael Essien of Ghana is one of the more tireless and athletic midfielders in the world.

Nations like Nigeria, silver medalist in the 2008 Olympic Games and champion of the 2009 Under-17 World Cup, are starting to evolve as major players. I would not discount the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon or Nigeria to advance as far as the quarterfinals.

* You have to defend well to win.

The Italians are known for the ability to stay tight defensively and counter-attack, which always makes them a title contender.

Greece won the 2004 European Championships by playing stingy defense.

Serbia’s backline has been very tough in qualifying for the past two World Cups, and is led by Manchester United center back Nemanja Vidic.

Even though Argentina is loaded with attacking talent, it will probably only go as far as defenders Walter Samuel and Martin Demichelis take it.

* No matter how strong a probable lineup is, teams look a lot different with key personnel out due to injury. Germany will not be the same with Michael Ballack out, and the Ivory Coast (Drogba), Ghana (Essien), England (Rio Ferdinand) and Portugal (Nani) have all been hit with key injuries.

* It’s winter in South Africa, so extreme heat shouldn’t be a big factor — though the combination of climate and high altitude could play a role.

It all adds up to the competition being wide open. I can’t wait for things to get started.

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